Critical Thinking As A Learned Skill

 Critical Thinking As A Learned Skill

M. Bakri Musa

 

July 7, 2025

Excerpt #16 from my book Qur’an, Hadith, And Hikayat:  Exercises In Critical Thinking

 

Thinking is what the conscious mind does, unlike dreaming or hallucinating. Thinking is an active, complex mental process.

 

         The popular image of thinking is of the man stooped forward, palm on chin, staring at nothing in particular, well captured in Auguste Rodin’s iconic sculpture, “The Thinker.” In human biology, thinking conjures up images of the dendritic ends of brain cells sparkling with the release of neurotransmitters as they communicate with one another. It is the brain organizing and making sense of all the information that has come in.

 

         Thinking involves perception, learning, remembering, and that general thing called intelligence. All for the single purpose of solving a problem or making a decision that would benefit the individual, or at least not harm him. 

 

         The lowest rung of the learning process is the simple act of observation, as a videorecorder would a scene. Just as one’s eye sees what it wants to see, likewise with video recordings. Contrary to what we think, we do not record the scene in a passive neutral manner. We are familiar with television cameramen focusing on the few unruly demonstrators in an otherwise peaceful rally, thus giving viewers a completely different conclusion. That is called framing, and it also occurs with thinking.

 

         The opposite, that is, a neutral or fixed camera setting as with a surveillance camera, could also be or even more misleading. An example would be the official recordings of United States Congressional sessions. The camera has a fixed focus and position – towards the podium with the speaking lawmaker at the center. That is required by statute precisely to prevent possible camera slanting and manipulation of images, that is, to avoid framing.

 

         If the camera (meaning its operator) were to be allowed to pan around and reveal the empty chamber, that would reduce the congresswoman with her impassioned speech and exaggerated gestures to impress her constituents back home to a pathetic figure.

 

         American policemen have body cameras. Many thought that would reduce police abuses. They do, for the most part. However, that body camera records only what’s within its view and range. The scenes beyond which could often be more determinative are excluded. We have to be circumspect with such claims as “the camera does not lie.” This is quite apart from the capabilities of today’s sophisticated video and photo editing software, as well as Artificial Intelligence (AI).

 

         Have a video where a politician’s every little misleading statement pieced together, and you would effectively paint her as a habitual liar.

 

         Years ago I met a group of Malaysian leaders on a State Department-sponsored tour of America. They visited Washington, DC, and Las Vegas, among other cities. On chatting with them, one complained of the pathetic and ubiquitous sights of the homeless in Washington, DC, together with the rutted streets and adult stores at every corner. To him that was America, and he was far from impressed.

 

         It was obvious that he was not shown or chose not to visit Georgetown University where the world brightest would compete for admission, the Library of Congress which has more original ancient Malay scripts as well as books on Malaysia than Perpustakaan Negara (Malaysia’s National Library), or the National Institutes of Health where miraculous discoveries in medicine are being made all the time. 

 

         There was a bright side to the visitors’ observations. After a visit to Las Vegas one of them gushed that the city would be his vision of Paradise! When I inquired how so, he replied that as in Heaven, you could satisfy your needs and desires by just pressing a button. He was referring to the ubiquitous vending machines. Push one button and out gushes hot soup; another, a chocolate bar. He did not tell me whether he could get any of his 72 virgins by clicking on similar buttons!

 

         The eye sees what it wants to see! Therein lies the problem! Those visitors carried with them their earlier assumptions (or prejudices) about America. Their visit did not alter anything, except for the one who thought Las Vegas as Heaven. He was receptive to changing his views with new experiences. In short, he was engaging in some introspection and critical thinking.

 

         Travel, and with that, new experiences, is often the best and ready stimulus to think critically, or at least reexamine one’s old comfortable assumptions. That however is predicated upon the willingness to be open to new experiences and different viewpoints. As the 14th Century Moroccan wanderer Ibn Battuta wrote, “Travelling – it leaves you speechless, and then turns you into a storyteller.” You are more than eager to share your stories and perspectives. Doing so also engages you in critical thinking.

 

Excerpt #17: Critical Thinking:  To Think Like A Child

Pentadbiran Anwar Setengah Pengal: Lulus Tetapi Tidak Cemerlang

 Pentadbiran Anwar Setengah Penggal: Lulus Tetapi Tidak Cemerlang

Oleh: M. Bakri Musa

Cabaran terbesar Perdana Menteri Anwar Ibrahim sewaktu mengambil alih kuasa adalah tiga. Pertama, rasuah yang berleluasa; kedua, institusi yang lemah dan gagal terutamanya Pendidikan; dan tiga, pengaruh kuno kaum Islamisis.

Pada permulaannya, Pentadbiran Anwar menunjukkan sedikit harapan dalam membanteras rasuah walau pun ia mengabaikan yang kedua cabaran lain. Itu mungkin di fahamkan jika tidak diampunkan. Maklumlah kerajaannya adalah gabungan yang janggal, dan dengan itu, terdapat kekangan dalam memperkenalkan inisiatif dan dasar yang bermana serta pemilihan bakat. Tambahan pula jika menentang rasuah itu juga akan mengkokohkan institusi. Institusi yang lemah tidak akan mampu mengendalikan golongan Islamis pelampau dan nasionalis bahasa yang semakin lantang.

Di pertengahan penggal pentadbiran Anwar dianggap Berjaya hanya jika kita bermurah hati dan membandingankan ia dengan kerajaan Itali yang tidak berhenti mendapat mandat tanpa majoriti. Fikirkan beliau telah berjaya mengreka satu gabungan yang pelik dan mustahil. Maklumlah menyatukan UMNO dan DAP di bawah satu bumbung memerlukan kemahiran politik yang cekap dan pintas.

Tambahan pula ambil kira bahawa antara Januari 2018 hingga Disember 2022, dalam tempoh masa lima tahun sahaja, Malaysia ada lima Perdana Menteri, jumlah yang sama seperti separuh abad selepas kemerdekaan.

Bila menilai Anwar sebagai pemimpin, harus diingatkan bahawa kekecewaan terbesar seorang guru bukanlah kerana pelajarnya yang lembab gagal, tetapi sebaliknya bintangnya yang paling cemerlang tidak mencapai potensi penuhnya.

Rakyat Malaysia berharap Anwar yang telah diuji dengan penjara dan diinspirasikan oleh reformasi, walaupun di kejam oleh Mahathir yang zalim, mungkin lebih matang sewaktu memegang jawatan. Harapan ini disokong oleh perkaitannya selama sedekad selepas penjara dengan cerdik pandai di institusi agung seperti Oxford dan Johns Hopkins.

Namun demikian sekarang di pertengahan penggal pentadbiran, Anwar bukan sahaja gagal menangani tiga isu kritikal utama tersebut, malah kini terjerat dalam masalah dalaman partinya yang tidak perlu dan akibat dicipta sendiri. Kehilangan Rafizi Ramli dan Nik Nazmi tidak mudah diperbaiki kerana Anwar telah gagal menarik bakat baru ke dalam pentadbirannya. Perlembagaan negara memberi jalan berbuat demikian melalui pelantikan sebagai senator.

Anwar juga kini perlu mempertahankan dirinya dalam tuntutan sivil berkaitan seks yang kotor.

Kejayaan awal Mahathir yang menakjubkan dalam menangani rasuah semasa penggal keduanya yang singkat, seperti mensabitkan Najib Razak serta isterinya dalam kes-kes berasingan, bergantung kepada dia melantik orang luar sebagai Peguam Negara dan pendakwa raya. Anwar patut melakukan yang sama.

Beliau kini berpeluang untuk memperkasa semula badan kehakiman. Contohi Lee Kuan Yew yang pada tahun 1990 memilih Yong Pung How, seorang orang luar dengan pengalaman luas dalam sektor swasta. Sekiranya Anwar memilih orang luar sebagai Peguam Negara dua November yang lalu, tidak akan ada beberapa kes DNAA (Dilepaskan Tanpa Dibebaskan) berprofil tinggi sekarang.

Beberapa bulan lepas Anwar berpeluang memilih Ketua Anti-Rasuah yang baru tetapi dia tidak berbuat demikian. Penyandang jawatan itu kelihatan keliru, menganggap memerangi rasuah sebagai soal siasat dan siasatan yang berpanjangan. Failkan dan dakwa serta berhentikan sidang media tunjuk-dan-beritahu yang tidak berkesudahan.

Golongan Islamis juga naik angin dengan perkara yang remeh seperti cara pakaian guru. Sekarang mereka sibuk pula mengenalankan “Hadis Empat Puluh Imam Nawawi” ke dalam sekolah. Anwar dan Menteri Pendidikan sepatutnya memperkenalkan lebih banyak sains dan matematik, atau menggunakan Hadis Empat Puluh itu bukan sebagai bacaan tidak berkesudahan tetapi sebagai latihan untuk berfikir dengan kritis. Sementara itu, prestasi pelajar kita di PISA terus merosot.

Anwar dengan kemahiran politiknya akan menamatkan penggalnya dengan penuh. Di situlah terletaknya perangkap yang memikat. Beliau tidak seharusnya mempertimbangkan untuk bertanding bagi penggal kedua. Itu akan sekali gus menanamkan rasa terdesak dalam dirinya.

Contohi Presiden Reagan; beliau menganggap penggal pertamanya seolah-olah itu adalah peluangnya terakhir. Dia tidak terlalu pintas mindanya tetapi dia mempunyai kebijaksanaan untuk menarik ramai bakat baru dan cemerlang ke dalam pentadbirannya. Dia juga selesa dengan mereka. Anwar patut melakukan perkara yang sama. Perkasakan perkhidmatan awam yang sangat tertutup dan tertekan dengan mentaliti senioriti. Perkhidmatan itu memerlukan lebih banyak suntikan bakat diperingkat tinggi untuk memecahkan mentaliti "pesawat terbang beratur sabar menunggu slot pendaratan mereka".

Anwar mempunyai kedudukan dan kelayakkan untuk mencabar golongan Islamis dan nasionalis bahasa dan fikiran kebelakangan mereka. Beliau tidak perlu melayan mereka. Hapuskan tiga cabaran nasional kritikal itu dan Anwar tidak perlu bertanding untuk penggal kedua.

Saya berpendapat bahawa pendedahan antarabangsa seorang pemimpin berkait songsang dengan keberkesanannya di dalam negara. Siapa tahu pemimpin Taiwan? Tetapi seluruh dunia kenal nama Zelensky, seorang yang korup dan tidak cekap. Selain daripada itu, pada seorang berusia seperti Anwar, jet lag yang tidak dapat dielakkan adalah beban yang besar.

Seorang pemimpin bukanlah seorang populis atau peniup seruling seperti dalam cerita kuno Europah. Yakni sekadar mengikut rentak ramai. Juga elok juga diingatkan bahawa pechahan terbesar dalam dunia Islam, yang masih terasa gaungnya hingga ke hari ini, berlaku apabila Ali, menantu dan anak sepupu Nabi, menjadi Khalifah keempat. Bayangkan jika beliau anak Nabi dan menjadi Khalifah pertama atau kedua.

The Anwar Administration At Mid Term: Passable But Not Laudatory

The Anwar Administration At Mid Term:  Passable But Not Laudatory

M. Bakri Musa

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s greatest challenge on assuming office was the crippling triad of entrenched corruption, weak institutions, and assertive Islamism.

The Administration showed early promise by cracking down on corruption. However, it ignored the other two. Excusable perhaps given that Anwar’s government was an unwieldy coalition, and with that, constraints in introducing bold policies as well as choice of talents. It could also be argued that tackling corruption would strengthen institutions. And strong institutions could then handle the extremist Islamists.

At mid-term the Anwar Administration is judged successful only if one were to apply the Italian criterion (notorious for coalition governments) and be generous. He survived his unwieldy coalition. Having UMNO and DAP under the same tent required adroit political skills. Also consider that between January 2018 to December 2022, mere five years, Malaysia had five Prime Ministers, the same number as during her first half-century. 

Malaysians had expected that the prison-tested and reformasi-inspired Anwar, despite his brutal political baptism by the ruthless Mahathir, to be well seasoned upon assuming office. This optimism was buttressed by his decade-long post-prison association with such august institutions as Oxford and Johns Hopkins.

Alas at mid-term Anwar has not only failed to address those three core critical issues but he is now enmeshed in an unnecessary self-inflicted internal problem. The loss of Rafizi Ramli and Nik Nazmi is not readily remedied as Anwar had failed to attract significant new talents into his administration. As an unneeded distraction, he now has to defend himself in a sordid sex-related civil suit.

Mahathir during his brief second tenure succeeded in convicting Najib Razak and his wife. He did so by appointing outsiders as Attorney-General and prosecutors. Anwar should have done likewise.

Anwar now has a chance with the judiciary. Emulate Lee Kuan Yew who in 1990 picked Yong Pung How, an outsider with a law degree from Cambridge and vast private sector experience outside of law. By contrast, Malaysian judges are unidimensional.

A measure of Malaysian judges is their post-retirement standing. The first Chief Justice Tun Suffian excepted, most disappeared into oblivion. As for their performances while in office, there was the character who was married in Thailand and tried to conceal it. Most egregious was the Chief Justice who was at the other end of the phone with a defense attorney who uttered, “Correct, correct, correct!” Another was caught holidaying abroad with a member of the Bar. I wonder who picked up the tab.

Had Anwar picked an outsider as Attorney-General two Novembers ago, there would not have been the current flurries of high-profile DNAAs (Dismissal Not Amounting to an Acquittal).

Anwar had a chance recently to pick a new Anti-Corruption Chief but chose not to despite the incumbent seeming confused, mistaking fighting corruption as prolonged interrogations and investigations, as well as endless show-and-tell press conferences.

The Islamists too are becoming assertive with such trivialities as teachers’ dress codes. Far more serious was the recent introduction of Imam Nawawi’s Forty Hadith into schools. What is needed is more science and math. Had Forty Hadith been used not as endless recitations but as exercises in critical thinking, that would have been laudable.

Anwar’s political skills will see him through his full term if for nothing else than the alternatives being so mediocre. Therein lies the seductive trap. He should not even consider running for a second term, thus instilling in him a sense of urgency.

Emulate President Reagan; he treated his first term as if that was his only chance. No intellect, he attracted many bright talents into his Administration and was comfortable with them. Anwar should do likewise. Invigorate the highly-inbred insular civil service now inflicted with the seniority mindset with massive high-level lateral infusions of talents. That would disrupt the civil servants’ current “planes patiently lining up for landing slots” mentality.

Anwar is also the only leader with the standing to challenge the regressive Islamists and language nationalists. As such he does not need to humor them.

Anwar should be reminded that a leader’s effectiveness at home is inversely related to his exposure abroad. Few could name the head of Taiwan but everybody has heard of the corrupt incompetent Zelensky. Besides, at Anwar’s age the inevitable jet lags can be distracting.

A leader is not a populist or “pied piper.” Grooming a successor is another responsibility of a leader. Anwar’s daughter is now the party’s deputy leader and thus putative successor. It is worth remembering that the greatest tragedy in Islam, one that still reverberates today, occurred when Ali, the prophet’s cousin as well as son-in-law, became the fourth Caliph. Imagine if he had been the prophet’s son and became the first or second Caliph!

 

 

Berfikir nUtuk Mencipta Realiti Baru

 Berfikir Untuk Mencipta Realiti Baru

M. Bakri Musa

Petikan #15 daripada buku saya, Qur’an, Hadith, Dan Hikayat: Latihan Dalam Pemikiran Kritikal

Pendekatan ujian klinikal telah diguna oleh disiplin selain daripada perubatan, terutamanya ekonomi. Renungkan masalah pencapaian pendidikan yang rendah di kalangan pelajar miskin luar bandar. Mengapa tidak cuba beberapa cara untuk menolong mereka dan lepas itu kaji keputusannya?

Sepasang suami isteri ahli ekonomi MIT telah melakukan kajian tersebut dengan murid sekolah di Afrika. Satu kumpulan diberima makanan percuma di sekolah (seperti di Amerika); kumpulan kedua di beri wang tunai kepada ibu bapa untuk menghantar anak mereka ke sekolah (seperti Program Progressa di Mexico); kumpulan ketiga, diberi wang tanpa syarat (UCT—Unconditional Cash Transfer); dan terakhir, di beri ubat cacing.

Rupanya mereka yang diberi pil cacing berkala menunjukkan keputusan darjah terbaik serta prestasi dari segi hasil pendidikan! Lebih luar biasa, mereka mengekalkan kelebihan daya saing mereka kemudian sebagai orang dewasa, seperti yang ditunjukkan oleh pendapatan mereka yang lebih tinggi. Pendek kata, kesihatan asas manusia mengatasi segala-galanya!

Kembali pada awal 1950-an, ahli ekonomi Malaysia teragung Ungku Aziz mencadangkan selalu memberi pil ubat cacing berkala kepada kanak-kanak luar bandar untuk meningkatkan prestasi sekolah mereka. Beliau melihat anak kampung tersebut pucat dengan perut yang buncit dan tingkah laku yang lembap. Sebagai seorang Melayu, beliau biasa dengan persekitaran kampung, baik dari segi fizikal (seperti kemudahan sanitasi yang tidak wujud), mahupun budaya.

Bapa saya membaca cadangan Ungku Aziz dalam akhbar Utusan Melayu dan terus memberi adek beradek saya pil ubat cacing secara berkala. Saya tidak tahu sejauh mana hendak mengaitkan kejayaan akademik saya kemudian kepada pil-pil tersebut atau bimbingan ibu bapa dan guru saya. Saya juga tidak tahu sama ada pembuat dasar Malaysia pernah menerima pemerhatian Ungku Aziz yang berpandangan jauh itu dan berberapa dekad sebelum pasangan ahli ekonomi MIT yang terkenal itu.

Hari ini akibat status ekonomi keluarga Melayu luar bandar semakin baik secara amnya, murid semuanya termasuk di luar bandar semuanya memakai kasut. Itulah cara paling berkesan untuk mengurangkan cacing dalam usus—dengan cara pencegahan. Tiada mungkin kesan kurang baik seperti mengunakan pil.

Kembali kepada ibu bapa saya, dia akan marah jika ada di antara kami jika yang keluar tanpa menggunakan alas kaki. Kami sentiasa memakai terompah, murah dan senang di dapati.

Kaedah saintifik, seperti ujian klinikal "buta" adalah aspek pemikiran kritikal. Kemajuan Barat dalam dua tiga abad terakhir, dan kini Asia Timur dalam setengah abad terakhir, dikaitkan dengan penggunaan pendekatan saintifik. Kemajuan China sekarang bukan disebabkan oleh etika Konfusianisme yang misterius, seperti yang didakwa sesetengah pihak. Sebaliknya itu adalah akibat negara itu memeluk sains dan teknologi selepas kegagalan teruk revolusi Mao yang tidak berkesudahan dan sosialisme yang tidak berakal. Akibatnya anak muda mereka habis masa melaungkan ayat-ayat dari Buku Merah Mao.

Mereka yang terdedah kepada sains kurang berkemungkinan dipengaruh oleh emosi atau pemikiran yang ceroboh. Satu kebetulan ialah bahagian Malaysia yang paling kebelakangan seperti Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan, dan Terengganu, juga adalah negeri yang paling kurang "saintifik". Tidak hairan juga mereka mudah terpengaruh dengan retorik dan syarahan pemimpin agama mereka yang sama jumud dan buta sains. Negeri tersebut juga mempunyai insiden kes Covid-19 tertinggi.

Berfikir secara kritikal bukanlah untuk mengkeji atau menghakimi, seperti istilah tersebut pada umumnya difahami. Ia bukan untuk merendah-rendahkan atau meragui norma dan nilai orang lain, terutamanya mereka yang berbeza budaya atau asal atau dan tidak bersetuju dengan anda.

Sebaliknya, anda menyoal untuk memastikan kebenaran atau kesahihan sesuatu dakwaan atau kenyataan. Pemikiran kritikal hanya menghakimi dalam erti kata anda membenci atau menolak mereka yang menggunakan penaakulan yang salah atau andaian palsu untuk mencapai kesimpulan. Pemikiran kritikal akan membawa kita ke arah realiti baharu yang belum pernah terbayang sebelum ini.

Pramoedya Ananta Toer menulis dalam Rumah Kaca, "Kita semua perlu menerima 'fakta'. Walau bagaimanapun, jika itu sahaja yang kita lakukan, maka kita tidak akan pernah berkembang. Manusia mesti mencipta fakta baharu agar kita tidak berisiko menghapuskan perkataan 'kemajuan' dalam perbendaharaan kata kita."

Mencipta fakta baharu memerlukan pemikiran kritikal.

Seterusnya: Berfikir Secara Kritikal Adalah Kemahiran YangBoleh  Dipelajari

Thinking and Creating New Realities

  

Thinking And Creating New Realities

M. Bakri Musa

Excerpt #15 from my book Qur’an, Hadith, And Hikayat:  Exercises In Critical Thinking

 

The clinical trial approach has been adopted by other disciplines beyond medicine, in particular economics. Consider the problem of low educational achievements among poor rural students. Why not try different interventions and analyze the results.

 

         A husband-and-wife team of MIT economists did exactly that–clinical trials–with African school children. One group received free school meals (as in America); another, monetary incentive to encourage parents to keep their children in school (a la Mexico’s Progressa Program); a third, given money but with no conditions attached (UCT–Unconditional Cash Transfers); and last, simple medical intervention of regular deworming.

 

         It turned out that those given regular deworming pills did the best in terms of educational outcome! More remarkable, they maintained their competitive advantage later as adults, as reflected by their superior earnings. Basic human health trumps everything else!

 

         Back in the early 1950s, Malaysian economist Ungku Aziz suggested regular deworming of rural children to improve their school performances. He had previously visited those villages and saw the children’s pallid faces, bloated tummies, and sluggish behaviors. Being a Malay, he was familiar with the kampung environment, physical (as with non-existent sanitary facilities), as well as cultural.

 

         My father read Ungku Aziz’s suggestion in the local papers and decided to give his children regular deworming pills. I do not know how much to attribute my later academic success to those pills, my parents’ guidance, or my teachers’ tutelage. I also do not know whether Malaysian policymakers ever adopted Ungku Aziz’s prescient observation decades before those famous MIT economists.

 

         Today, thanks to the general improved economic status of rural Malay families, their children all now wear shoes. That is the most effective way of managing worm infestations–prevention. No potential side effects too, as with medications!

 

         Back to my parents, woe would be to any of us if we were caught going around barefooted outside. We always had our wooden sandals on, the terompah.

 

         The scientific method, as with “blind” clinical trials, is an aspect of critical thinking. The progress of the West during the last two centuries, and now East Asia during the last half century, is attributed to their adoption of the scientific approach. China’s current progress is not due to some mysterious Confucian ethics, as some are claiming, rather to the country embracing science and technology after the abysmal failure of Mao’s endless revolutions and mindless socialism with their young chanting verses from Mao’s Red Book.

 

         Those exposed to science are less likely to be swayed by emotions or sloppy thinking. It is not coincidental that the least developed parts of Malaysia–Kedah, Perlis, Kelantan and Terengganu–are also the least “scientific.” No surprise also that they are easily swayed by the rhetoric and oratories of their equally insular and science-illiterate religious leaders. Those states also had the highest incidence of Covid-19 cases during the pandemic.

 

         To think critically is not to be judgmental, as the term is generally understood. It is not to belittle or cast doubts on the norms and values of others, especially those who are different from or who disagree with you.

 

         Instead, you ask questions to ascertain the truth or validity of a claim or assertion. Critical thinking is judgmental only in the sense that you abhor or reject those using faulty reasonings or false assumptions to arrive at a conclusion. Critical thinking would lead us towards hitherto new and unimagined realities.

 

         Pramoedya Ananta Toer wrote in his Rumah Kaca (House of Glass), “We all have to accept ‘facts.’ However, if that is all we do, then we will never grow. Man must create new facts lest we risk eliminating the word ‘progress’ in our vocabulary.” 

 

         Creating new facts requires critical thinking.

 

Next:  Thinking Critically Is A Learned Skill

Ujian Clinical Untuk Menyelesaikan Masaalah Sosial

 Ujian Klinikal Untuk Menyelesaikan Masalah Sosial

M. Bakri Musa

Petikan #14 daripada buku saya “Qur’an, Hadith, Dan Hikayat: Latihan Dalam Pemikiran Kritikal”

Pemikiran kritikal itu melibatkan menanya banyak soalan, mungkin selalunya yang susah dan kurang menyenangkan. Ia jangan disalah anggap dengan “persoalan” atau bersifat kritikal semata-mata. Bukan niatnya untuk menimbulkan keraguan atau sinis. Anda bertanya soalan untuk memastikan kebenaran sesuatu dakwaan atau kenyataan.

Renungkan kenyataan yang mudah ini. Saya pening kepala; makan pil aspirin dan sakit kepala itu hilang. Maka aspirin itulah yang menyembuhkan sakit kepala ku. Tetapi kadangkala minum air suam sahaja pun boleh menghilangkan sakit itu; begitu juga dengan melafazkan ayat-ayat suci atau selepas tidur lena.

Oleh kerana perubatan moden berasaskan sains, para doktor menyelesaikan kemusykilan ini bukan dengan mendengar nasihat pakar terkenal (dulu atau sekarang), tetapi dengan melakukan kajian dua buta (double-blind studies). Kumpulkan 200 orang pesakit pening kepala dan berikan separuh daripadanya aspirin, separuh lagi pil gula sahaja. Kemudian, buat kajian teliti menggunakan statistik. Sebahagian mereka yang diberi pil gula pun akan sumboh pening kepala mereka mungkin dengan sendirinya atau kesan plasebo semata-mata. 

Pak bomoh tetap kukuh pegangan mereka terhadap pengikutnya berdasarkan kesan plasebo ini, atau secara kasarnya, kebetulan dengan kepercayaan semata-mata. 

Ketika pandemik Covid-19, ramai yang mempersoalkan keperluan atau kesia-siaan pelbagai langkah yang diambil, seperti kuarantin dan larangan perhimpunan ramai, serta vaksinasi, penjarakan sosial, dan pemakaian pelitup muka. 

Dua pendekatan kepada masalah ini. Pertama, kaji wabak yang lalu; kedua, kaji langkah yang diambil oleh negara yang berjaya mengawal wabak ini. Sebelum memulakan kajian sedemikian, kita mesti mempunyai pemahaman asas tentang penyakit, khususnya perjalanan semula jadi penyakit itu. Ini boleh disimpulkan daripada sejarah, seperti ketika tanpa perubatan moden, atau dalam masyarakat terpencil semasa yang tidak tersentuh peradaban. Itu disebut sebagai “eksperimen alam jadi.”

Setiap wabak, atas pelbagai sebab, kebanyakan orang ramai atau penduduk akan terselamat. Mekanisme pertahanan badan semula jadi kita adalah satu faktor. Yang lain, atas naluri asas untuk terus hidup, kita belajar mengambil langkah pencegahan sendiri. Bagi agen berjangkit, jika berlaku mutasi (perubahan biologi) yang menjadikannya lebih bahaya atau senang berjangkit, seperti yang dialami dengan varian Delta Covid-19, angka mangsanya akan meningkat. Begitu juga, sebaliknya.

Pertimbangkan sebahagian besar mereka yang terselamat dengan sendirinya. Jika seorang penjual ubat kampung menjual ramuan ajaibnya kepada mereka, dia bermegah dengan kejayaannya 100 peratus, lebih baik daripada apa yang di buat oleh pakar moden. Dia mungkin menjadi kaya dan terkenal. Begitu juga dengan seorang agamawan yang membaca doa suci kepada kumpulan ini. Dia juga akan terkenal atas bebolihannya. Bahkan boleh memulakan agama baru! 

Seseorang itu boleh mendakwa banyak perkara hanya dengan memutar dadu dengan betul, atau memilih pelanggan dengan teliti. Disinilah perlunya ujian saintifik dua buta yang terkawal. Jika sesuatunya boleh mengurangkan ramainya si penyakit dalam kumpulan yang menerimanya berbanding dengan kumpulan yang tidak di beri apa apa, maka campur tangan itu berkesan. Dengan cara inilah kesanan vaksin telah dibuktikan. 

Semasa pandemik Covid-19, mereka yang tidak bersetuju dengan vaksin menonjolkan kes-kes individu yang mengalamai kesan yang kurang baik, termasuklah mereka yang membawa maut. Kesimpulan segera ialah kematian, komplikasi, dan kesan buruk lain itu di sebabkan oleh vaksin. Itu mungkin benar. 

Tetapi fikirkan bahawa pada bila-bila masa pun akan ada orang yang mengalami strok dan serangan jantung, bahkan mati, selepas perbuatan remeh seperti berjalan kaki atau menonton permainan bola sepak. Tiada siapa yang waras akan membuat kesimpulan bahawa menonton permainan bola sepak akan menyebabkan serangan jantung.

Namun kita melakukannya dengan kejadian buruk selepas vaksinasi, terutamanya yang dipanggil “kematian berlebihan” yang tinggi. Itulah sebabnya kita memerlukan kajian terkawal dan analisis kes individu yang teliti.

Seterusnya: Pemikiran Dan Mencipta Realiti Baharu

Clinical Trials In Solving Social Problems

 Clinical Trials In Solving Social Problems

M. Bakri Musa

 

Excerpt #14 from my book Qur’an, Hadith, And Hikayat:  Exercises In Critical Thinking

 

Critical thinking involves asking many and often hard, discomfiting questions. It should not be confused with “questioning” or being critical. It is not with the intention of casting doubt or being cynical. You ask questions to ascertain the truth of a claim or assertion.

 

         Consider this simple statement. I have a headache; I took aspirin and it went away. Therefore, the aspirin cured my headache. Sometimes drinking warm water would also do it; likewise with chanting verses from holy texts, or after a good sleep.

 

         With modern medicine being scientifically based, physicians solve this quandary not by listening to the utterances of famous doctors (then or now) but by doing double-blind studies. Get 200 patients with headaches and give half of them an aspirin, the other half, sugar tablet. Then analyze the results using rigorous statistical techniques. Some of those given sugar pills would have their headaches disappear anyway–on its own or just the placebo effect.

 

         Bomohs and faith healers maintain their tenacious hold on their followers based on these placebo effects, or flukes, to put it less kindly.

 

         During the Covid-19 pandemic many questioned the necessity or futility of the various measures taken, as with quarantine and the banning of mass gatherings, as well as vaccinations, social distancing, and wearing face masks.

 

         Two approaches to the problem:  One, study past epidemics; another, evaluate current measures taken by those nations that have successfully controlled the pandemic.

 

         Before embarking on such studies, one must have some basic understanding on the diseases, in particular the natural course. This could be inferred from history as when we did not have modern medical interventions, or in current isolated societies untouched by civilization in what we would refer to as “experiments of nature.”

 

         During any epidemic, for a variety of reasons most of the population would be spared. Our innate body defense mechanism is one factor. The other, out of basic survival instincts we learn to take preventive measures on our own.

 

         As for the infectious agent, if there were to be a mutation (biological change) making it more infectious or lethal, as we experienced with Covid-19 Delta variant, the figures would be scaled up. Likewise, the reverse.

 

         Consider the vast majority without symptoms. If a snake oil salesman were to sell them his miracle potion, he could brag of a 100 percent success rate, better than what those doctors could offer. He would become rich and famous. Similarly, if a religious man were to incant his special prayers to this group, he too would be famous. He could even start a new religion. One could claim many things just by rolling the dice right, or with the careful selection of clients.

 

         Hence the need for controlled double-blind scientific trials. If an intervention could reduce the incidence of disease in the group that receives it versus another that does not, then that intervention is effective. Thus the effectiveness of vaccines was established.

 

         With the Covid-19 pandemic, the anti-vaccine advocates highlighted those individual cases of side effects including the rare deaths following vaccination. The immediate conclusion was that those deaths, complications, and other adverse effects were caused by the vaccines. Those may well be.

 

         However, consider that at any given time there would be people having strokes and heart attacks or even die, often following trivial incidents like walking or watching a football game. No one in their right mind would conclude that watching a football game would cause a heart attack. Yet we do that with adverse events following vaccinations, especially the high so-called “excess deaths.” That is why we need controlled studies and careful analysis of individual cases.

 

         Next:  Thinking And Creating New Realities