Schisms Among The Ummah

 Schisms Among the Ummah

 

M. Bakri Musa

Excerpted from my Qur’an, Hadith, And Hikayat: Exercises In Critical Thinking (2021)

September 20, 2026

 

The prediction that the ummah would splinter into 73 sects—with a lone, privileged group bound for Paradise while the remaining 72 burn—remains a staple of popular Islamic discourse. The Christians and Jews allegedly fared slightly better in their fractionalization, settling at 72 and 71 sects respectively. When I brought up this tradition to a group of Malaysian STEM students at an UMNO Club gathering in New Jersey back in 2010, I posed a simple exercise in logic: What are the mathematical odds that our specific group—in Malaysia, the official Shafi'i orthodoxy—happens to be the single golden ticket?

The answer is basic arithmetic: 1 in 73, or barely 1.37 percent. To anyone trained in engineering, those odds are functionally zero.

Now invert the equation. Your sect has a 98.6 percent chance of being utterly wrong. In statistical terms, that is practically a certainty. A rational mind confronted with such overwhelming odds would instantly adopt an attitude of deep humility, curiosity, and intellectual openness. You would be compelled to study other traditions, if only to hedge your bets and learn where truth actually resides. It fosters tolerance, inclusive thinking, and a healthy skepticism toward one's own assumptions.

The alternative is the prevailing mindset: the arrogance of absolute certainty despite zero statistical backing. Believers convince themselves that their minor sub-sect holds the exclusive monopoly on truth. This breeds a toxic messianic complex—a compulsive need to "save" or coerce others into line—which inevitably leads to sectarian friction. True social harmony is far more likely if every Muslim operates under the baseline assumption that their own group might very well be among the misguided.

Yet, observe our modern landscape. Social media is choked with virtual, celebrity ulama chanting the familiar mantra of "Muslim unity." Despite the abysmal odds, each insists that his narrow interpretation is the solitary path to salvation, condemning the other 72 to perdition.

When these scholars demand "unity," what they truly demand is absolute uniformity—or worse, unthinking unanimity. They blithely ignore the central premise of the Qur'an: that on the Day of Judgment, we are weighed on the mizanindividually by our deeds, not by our tribal or sectarian affiliations. Heaven has no VIP express lanes for specific schools of thought or ethnic identities.

The profound beauty of human diversity entirely escapes these literalists. To them, any shade of variation is an unacceptable bida'ah (innovation). Ironically, it is this rigid, dangerous obsession with enforced sameness that tears the ummah apart.

Next: Preventing Evil with Your Hand, Tongue, and Heart